Article: Predicting future performance before hiring

When HR sets 'Right Person Right Seat (RPRS)' targets, performance becomes the key parameter. And to fill seats with the right persons, hiring the right talent also becomes mandatory. Hiring the right talent isn’t just about assessing the skills and past experience of candidates but also predicting how well a candidate will perform in the right seat—whether they have the right skills, the right attitude, and the right potential.

However, employers still place too much emphasis on a candidate’s experience, assuming it to be the best predictor of future job performance, only to witness the candidate's performance declining over the years. And when a candidate is hired with the expectation that they will escalate into leadership roles, but their performance does not meet standard expectations, HR is caught in a difficult situation—firing the candidate or reassessing their position.

But is that the right approach? Not in the long run. A better strategy would be to change the approach right from the hiring process to predict performance so it doesn't become a problem later on.

Where to begin?

As discussed earlier, when hiring the right talent, assessing their experience, skills, and potential during interviews remains crucial. However, these elements must be used strategically to evaluate a candidate’s potential rather than just their past achievements. A candidate's resume offers insight into their background, but it should be analysed for skills and qualities relevant to the open position rather than just work history. For instance, hiring managers should focus on identifying transferable skills, problem-solving abilities, and learning agility. These factors often indicate whether a candidate can excel in a new role, especially when hiring recent graduates or professionals making career transitions.

"Focus on understanding their potential and willingness to learn. Ask about their transferable skills, past challenges they’ve overcome, and how they approach new situations. For example, ask them to share a time when they picked up a new skill quickly or solved a problem creatively. Also look for enthusiasm and a growth mindset, because those traits often make up for limited experience. The goal is to see if they have the right attitude and abilities to grow into the role," shared Kiruthika M, a recruiter with iResponsive Solutions.

Interviews should also be tailored to predict future performance rather than rehash past responsibilities. Structured interviews that include scenario-based questions allow hiring managers to evaluate candidates based on their thought processes, decision-making skills, and problem-solving abilities. Instead of solely asking candidates to describe past experiences, interviewers should ask them to respond to hypothetical job-related situations. This helps gauge their ability to handle challenges and think critically in a real-world context.

Dhriti Roy shared, "Candidate's Growth potential, their learning, curiosity, adaptability. Their problem-solving skills with different problem solving questions and past projects questions. By the end of these questions I would be able to evaluate their Soft skills like Communication, teamwork working skills as well. Lastly I would question them on creative scenarios to evaluate their creativity, values, career goals."

How to spot candidates with high-potential for future performance?

One of the most effective ways to predict a candidate’s future performance is through skills assessments and job performance tests. These assessments provide direct insight into a candidate’s ability to perform key job tasks. Work sample tests, for example, require candidates to complete assignments that mirror the duties they would be expected to handle in the role. This method allows employers to evaluate not only technical skills but also problem-solving approaches and efficiency.

Charbel Azar, a Talent resourcer and Recruitment Consultant, shared his perspective on hiring a high-potential candidate with less experience and skills, "When interviewing a high-potential candidate with limited experience, focus on assessing their transferable skills, adaptability, and willingness to learn. Ask behavioral questions to understand how they approach challenges, solve problems, and take initiative. Explore their motivation for the role and how they plan to grow within the position. Emphasise their ability to collaborate, communicate, and apply critical thinking to real-world scenarios. Look for enthusiasm, resourcefulness, and a growth mindset that indicates they can excel with the right support and training."

Cognitive ability and personality tests can also play a significant role in predicting job success. Research from the American Psychological Association has found that cognitive ability and conscientiousness are two of the strongest predictors of job performance. These assessments help measure a candidate’s capacity for learning, adaptability, and resilience—qualities that are particularly important in fast-evolving industries.

"In a case where I see the candidate is clearly talented and shows promise and capability; yet with limited “tangible experience” I would then assess them further via critical thinking questions to get an idea of their thought process, more behavioral based questions to get an idea of how they would handle either a difficult situation, have them walk you through a real life example of a day in the life task or challenge they would similarly experience on the job. That would help to gauge and hopefully indicate future work output," shared Debbie Doughlas, a Senior Recruitment Expert & Founder & CEO of 3DHR Consulting firm.

How does training a high-potential candidate ensure better future performance?

Some forward-thinking companies are adopting an innovative hiring strategy: training before hiring. Instead of hiring candidates and then training them, these companies provide pre-employment training programs that allow candidates to develop the necessary skills before securing a position. This method not only helps candidates gauge their interest and aptitude for the job but also enables employers to assess their ability to learn and apply new skills. Companies such as Microsoft, Deloitte, and Google have successfully implemented this approach, creating specialised training courses that help build a skilled talent pipeline.

"If I realise that the candidate has enormous potential despite little experience, then I challenge him on his long-term vision and motivations: willingness to learn, adaptability, attitude, soft skills, etc. If this fits in with the corporate culture, then I try to set up a special program in which he or she can be surrounded by mentors so as to be able to express his or her potential and gain experience effectively," shared Robin Josse, a Recruitment and Career Expert.

"When I interview high-potential talent, I focus on their learning capacity rather than their current skillset. One of my best hires was a career-switcher who had built an impressive side project. Instead of grilling her on algorithms, I asked her to walk me through her design decisions and what she'd do differently now. I love giving them a real bug we faced and watching how they approach it. It's not about finding the solution - it's about seeing their problem-solving process. Do they ask smart questions? Can they break down complex problems? Remember how we all started? Raw talent needs mentoring, not perfection. I'd rather hire someone curious and coachable than someone with perfect credentials but a fixed mindset," shared Alexander Mäule, a product leader with Teamware Group.

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"Focusing on how they keep learning is a great way to conduct the interview with a candidate with limited experience. I also try to get them to consider other realms where they demonstrated the specific job relevant skills. Work is not the only place we gain skills - volunteering, class assignments/projects, caregiving, babysitting, tutoring/mentoring, sports, clubs, or hobbies. When I ask questions and want examples from prior experience, I share some of these places where they may gained/demonstrated the skill. As a follow-up, I'll ask how they anticipate applying it to a work environment," shared U.S.-based Eileen Murphy, a career coach and expert.

Therefore, when hiring a candidate for best and escalating future performance, it is essential to:

First, set and define clear expectations and key performance indicators (KPIs) for success in the position before evaluating candidates.

Second, combine resumes, interviews, skills tests, and cognitive assessments to create a comprehensive evaluation of a candidate’s potential.

Third, ensure fairness and consistency by asking all candidates the same performance-related questions and using a standardised scoring system.

At last, ensure that the candidate gets exposure to training and learning opportunities so that even if they have not matched the skill criteria, their high potential can translate into a more desired and fulfilling performance as they step into the role.